So we're going to dive into all things AI at Box. But before we do that, we're recording this on April 8th.
Yes. We need, like, a newspaper hostage. Okay, this is when this happened.
Yeah, a little bit of a crazy time. And who knows what's going to happen between now and the time we publish. There's no chance this will be relevant by the time this gets published. I'm curious, as a public company CEO, not just tariffs, but how do you navigate uncertainty and volatility in public markets? You've been a public company CEO for 10 years now. Do you worry about the ups and downs of the stock price, or do you have such a long-term view that it matters less?
Well, it depends on if I can decouple the stock price from a more technical, actual issue that we're dealing with. And so I would say I'm less worried about the stock price moving because of Wall Street trading up or down for any particular reason, but very worried about the embedded issue that might be related to that. So, let's say sometimes it's self-caused, so we have to execute better in a particular area, and the stock price in those situations is just a symptom of the actual thing that you're dealing with, and it's your real-time KPI of that problem.
And then in the case of tariffs, the thing that scares the living heck out of me is actually the economic impact that this would have. So I don't really care about the stock price per se. I care about the health of the country economically. And then obviously there's lots of follow-through that would happen and ripple effect that would happen if, as of Tuesday afternoon, the tariffs that have been proposed, if those roll through, this is gonna be a total disaster. So hopefully, whenever this airs, we'll be able to look back on this and laugh and say, ah, it was just an incredible negotiation gambit and it worked out.
China capitulated immediately.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course. Yeah, Xi just gave up and it was just like, wow, America, you're so strong, and we're going to give in, and that'll be amazing. And I'll be the fastest person to turn and say, wow, good work. My fear is that doesn't happen. My fear is that there are certain countries and groups of countries that have more leverage than we realize, and that we've gotten ourselves into a negotiating position that is going to make it harder and harder to pull back from.
And Trump specifically is obviously in a situation where he doesn't want to be perceived as being weak. But you don't want that as your core lead negotiator in a situation when you might not have all the cards. And that would be the scary thing about this: do we run into a negotiation that we can't pull ourselves out of? And all of the fallout from that would be obviously very problematic.
Well, the good news is that we're going to have expensive T-shirts and shoes now because we didn't like cheap T-shirts.
Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's interesting that I have a couple of categories of issue, right? So, like, the cheap T-shirt and cheap shoes, we'll probably find a way to survive in terms of maybe we'll have less consumer goods on that front. That would be pretty bad for certain parts of the economy. That's not good. But maybe you just buy a little bit fewer things.
The part that I think is disastrous is, think about all of the input materials we need to be able to build our industrial sector, to build our companies that go in and then sell things all around the world. What you're basically doing is you're handing to our competitors an instant disadvantage that we now have, where we're basically saying, you know what, we want our input costs to be higher in the U.S. And now you have entrepreneurial people globally saying, well, this is great.
Like, the U.S. just erected its own barrier to being able to compete with us. What an incredible moment, right? If you're an international entrepreneur right now and you're watching this, you're like, I can now finally outcompete the U.S. because they're just going to create friction for their own businesses. So there's actually no good story here. The only good story would be some scenario where you'd done this, like, 100 years ago and we just miraculously had robotic factories at this point because we had made this decision.
But we're not on that timeline.
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, right, right.
So we're not on this timeline.
And so we have to deal with the timeline that we're actually on. The timeline that we're actually on is one where we have an interconnected supply chain globally, and our companies need that to function and to have some degree of predictability to be able to operate in this economy. So that's why I think we're running off a cliff if we don't pull things back. The one saving grace that I'm optimistic about on this path is Elon caring about this issue. He's already been pretty outspoken about it in a couple of ways, some subtle, some much more direct.
Kind of against the head of trade. And by the time this airs, something will have happened between that dynamic. It's not possible for it to sustain in this way. So we'll see what happens. And I'm hoping that Elon bails us out, or maybe Scott Bessent wakes up to how big of an issue this is. Something will happen between now and then.
And on the theme of being a public company CEO, so the big story at Box over the last two to three years has been this very impressive transformation towards AI. Do you feel that you've been in a better position doing this as a public company CEO than you would have been had you been a private company? I guess, is being a public company these days good, bad, or neutral?
I would say it's probably, for us where we're at, neutral to positive. But that's idiosyncratic to us. We sell to enterprises. We're at a stable part of the growth curve where it's not like we're either going to grow 50% or 17% next year. We kind of have bands of predictability, which means that when you have predictability, you can kind of know what your cost structure should be. You sort of know how to guide to Wall Street.
So for those reasons, let's say those are neutral-to-positive dimensions. There's this one element, which is, okay, you're kind of pivoting the business in real time while being public. I think that it depends on how costly the pivot is and how much upside versus downside is there in the near term. Those are the times where pivots become very challenging as a public company. I think in the case of AI, it's somewhat costly for us in the sense of we have to put a lot of engineers on this problem.
It's not so costly from a compute standpoint because we've sort of been able to price our software in a way that can support the actual compute of the AI workload. So it's costly from R&D. There's some heavy change management internally to execute on the opportunity. But that would happen whether you're public or private, so that's not really that different. And then I think for us, our business model is probably, if anything, enhanced because of AI, because now the use cases we can solve for customers are more significant.
We can actually increase the market opportunity that we're going after. We can get into the implications of that. But we think the TAM of our category goes up because of AI. And the business model doesn't get severely disrupted in the sense of we used to be selling seats and now all of a sudden something totally different. It's seats and then something in addition to that. So if you contrast that, let's say, to maybe Blockbuster, right, going through—if you were to go back 20 years and say, "Blockbuster, would you like to be a public company or a private company while competing with Netflix?"
You'd say private, because what you do, you have to take down the business model of the late fees. You have to guide Wall Street in a very different way. And then you have to be like, "We are going to have a different business model. It's going to be worse on some dimensions. It's going to be better on others. We're not going to have as much capital expenditure on real estate, and the model is different, but we're going to take some hits."
Those are the times where it's easier to be private during the pivot. But for a lot of enterprise software in particular, it's mostly upside. And I think most companies are navigating this well. Google is an interesting one as an example. Sundar is doing an incredible job, but you can kind of feel for the challenge that he has, because if all of a sudden search dramatically changes to AI chat and the ad model is different, at least in enough ways that change the monetization, he's got to navigate that with hundreds of billions in revenue.
So that's actually maybe a harder challenge than the average software company that just sees this as pure upside. At least in their case, they've got these really interesting new revenue streams, AI workloads with compute, the TPUs, and that gives them some upside in the process as well.
And as an observer of tech and the tech industry, do you worry that not enough companies go public? Is that something that you think about?
Doesn't keep me up at night. Okay.
Because you're heads down executing, or because you don't think it's a problem?
I don't think it's a problem. I mean, probably if I'm really selfish, it just means more shareholders for us. Like, if you just on a continuum said, would you like there to be 10,000 public tech companies or 1,000? Where would you want to be on that continuum? You can just instantly imagine the liquidity dynamics that would emerge. So I'm kind of neutral. I don't really care that much. I think the interesting innovation that has emerged is—and this is funny because people kind of don't know exactly the root cause.
Like, maybe people think 20 years ago we made it so hard to go public. I'm actually not in that camp. I don't think we made it too hard to go public. I think actually it's good to have a heightened degree of scrutiny and regulatory pressure on being a public company. It is absolutely net positive for the average shareholder that we have all of these systems and governance controls in place. I think that's only a good thing.
But no matter how we got here, where we're at is we now have this new innovation, which is late-stage capital that can basically keep you private for, as far as we can tell, maybe forever, because you can kind of outrun the problem of converting these burn companies to cash-flow-positive companies. And usually you couldn't outrun that in the private market, so you ran out of funds and had to go public to get that capital. In a world where you can just keep raising privately, you can then twist the business model at some point to generating cash.
And you can kind of bend your mind a little bit and be like, well, at the end of the day, if you have a flow of cash coming into the company, you basically can make your own market for your shares, which means that any shareholder can basically decide at any point, do I like the price now or do I want to hold it? And you don't really have to—there's a very real scenario where a lot of these companies that are doing this model don't have to go public ever.
And there's not a premium that they give up in that process. In fact, there might be a premium to staying private because they don't have the volatility that we all deal with in the public market and so on.
And almost an adverse selection to going public. If you go public, it means you're not one of those companies that have a constant influx of—yeah.
So now you have this interesting issue where—okay, so if you play it out really far and let's say you had 30 really good companies doing this, it would be kind of funny because you might be like, well, why does that company have to go public? That I would actually say would be maybe a bad scenario because I do think just having choice in capital markets is probably good. But, for instance, the adverse selection that we saw, which was the micro version of that, is SPACs were basically adverse selection because you're like, okay, who needs to really go public right now?
Or who's just going public because it's convenient? Those are not reasons to go public. If you're going public because it's convenient and you're going public because you need to, those are instant filters for, like, don't be public. The kind of companies that should go public are like, you have predictable revenue, you're at a scale where that predictability will probably sustain. There's not a major disruption coming that was going to flip your model overnight. You have some degree of 1,000 employees, enough scale where things aren't going to blow up because one person leaves or this org change happens.
And so you don't really want companies that are rushing to go public before they have a lot of those conditions met. And so it would be interesting if there's a 10-years-from-now version of that, which is like all the numbers are five times bigger, but it's still problematic relative to the private companies. But I think if you were to design a system from scratch, we never even had as liquid markets as we have today, which is obviously a great thing and a great asset for the U.S.
I think you would just say, okay, I start a business, people can invest in that business, I can buy out their shares as the company is more successful. Warren Buffett really understands that model, and that would just be a model you could sustain forever if you wanted.